Subscription Form

Photo: PTI

 New Delhi, India: India could record an estimated 15,800 additional heat related deaths between September and February due to the ongoing El Nino, according to a new report by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The projection compares expected deaths during the six month period with mortality levels in a normal year. Researchers said the figure carries an uncertainty range of about 1,600 deaths.

Global heat threat

The study estimates that El Nino could contribute to around 451,000 excess deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027, with the heaviest impacts expected in already hot and relatively poorer regions.

Global land temperatures are projected to remain around 1.2°C above normal, while the number of extremely hot days could be 44 percent higher than in a typical year.

India is among the countries expected to face the largest impacts. Around 7,400 of the projected Indian deaths could occur between December and February, according to the report. Researchers said the heat-related toll could continue rising as the country enters its summer months.

Calls for early action

Researchers said the projections provide governments with an opportunity to prepare before the most severe impacts occur.

Measures identified in the report include heat-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration facilities, protection for outdoor workers, targeted outreach to vulnerable groups and additional healthcare capacity.

El Nino is a recurring climate pattern linked to unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that can alter temperatures and rainfall across different parts of the world. The current episode began in June and is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring.