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Fishermen pulling in a catch on a sunny day in the Maldives. Photo: Ministry

MALÉ: The Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office) has warned that temperatures across the entire nation will be higher than usual over the next three months as a result of a strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.

According to climate forecasts published by the Met Office for the September to November period, changing weather conditions will affect temperature and rainfall patterns across different regions of the country.

While temperatures will stay elevated across all atolls over the coming three months, rainfall patterns will vary. Central atolls—stretching from Malé Atoll down to Thaa Atoll—are projected to receive higher-than-average rainfall. In contrast, southern atolls are expected to experience lower-than-normal rainfall during the same three-month window.

Key statistics and factors related to the weather alert include:

• Three-Month Forecast Period: Forecast covers September through November, projecting nationwide above-average temperatures.

• Pacific Temperature Rise: Global sea surface temperatures in the Pacific region have already risen 2.0 degrees Celsius above average due to El Niño.

• Monthly Index Increase: The Niño 3.4 climate index recorded a sea surface temperature surge of 1.8 degrees Celsius in this month alone.

• Impact on Coral Reefs: Abnormally warm ocean waters pose a severe threat of coral bleaching and marine life degradation.

• Economic Sector Risks: Changing current patterns and rainfall reductions threaten local fisheries and agricultural production.

The Met Office emphasized that the three-month forecast highlights the extreme vulnerability of the Maldives to global climate shifts, urging key sectors including tourism, fisheries, and agriculture to prepare early for environmental impacts.